Game-Planning 1: Is Blake Griffin Human?

Welcome back to another year of Game-Planning from yours truly. It will be similar to last year's but with a more in-depth analysis on fewer games. This way, you'll better understand each team's strengths and weaknesses as opposed to "kinda" getting what's going on in the biggest games of the week.

The main storyline this week will certainly be the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. The obvious elite matchups (Duke/Purdue, UNC/Michigan State) are on the schedule while the not-so-obvious good, yet lesser-known, games will be there as well (Ohio State/Miami, Michigan/Maryland). So let's get to it.

#7 Duke vs. #10 Purdue

Purdue's overtime loss in the NIT Final to Oklahoma proved to be very telling for the Boilermakers. They did not get to the line nearly enough (only 5 attempts to the Sooners' 46), and will absolutely have to attack the basket against Duke and expose their lack of depth in the frontcourt. If Zoubek is out, it depends on the true freshman Plumlee to do the heavy work down low. Plumlee is averaging only two points and two rebounds in ten minutes per game. He's also shooting a sub par 1-for-4 from the line.

The Blue Devils, on the other hand, need to take advantage of their superior guards and speed. Their best plays of the season have all come in transition. It also helps that Duke is playing a lot of guys (ten averaging 10+ minutes per game) so the fresh legs may tire out Purdue in the second half.

Purdue must also protect star players E'Twaun Moore and Robbie Hummel, who fouled out at the end of regulation against Oklahoma. (One can only speculate on how overtime would have been different with him on the floor.) The duo has combined to average 31 points, 12 rebounds, and 7 assists in six games this season.

In the five games they have won, Purdue has allowed an average of only 58 points while Duke has been averaging 84 points of offense each game. To say it quite plainly, something has gotta give, and that something won't be Duke's offense. I'll take the Blue Devils in this one.

Southern Cal vs. #11 Oklahoma

The intriguing part about this game is the matchup between Blake Griffin, the best big man in America, versus Taj Gibson, possibly the most underrated big guy in the country. Gibson is averaging an impressive 17 points, 11 rebounds, and 4 blocks for Southern Cal, a team still dealing with the loss of OJ Mayo. Gibson will have to step his play up if he wants to compete with Griffin though. The Sooners' superstar is averaging a surreal 26 points and 19 rebounds per contest.

Griffin has yet to be contained on the boards, which will be a chore for USC. In fact, he has grabbed over 20 rebounds three times this year, and the BCS-conference record for an entire season is five games (Tim Duncan currently holds it). His toppling that mark is, in a word, possible.

Other than Blake, the Trojans should keep a watchful eye on his older brother, Taylor (averaging 12 points and 6 rebounds), and Cade Davis (Oklahoma's best shooter). For Coach Capel's squad, they will have to deal with not only Gibson, who may put the Griffins in foul trouble, but also Dwight Lewis (15 points per game) and freshman sensation Demar Derozan (10 points and 5 rebounds).

Both teams are frontcourt-heavy, but USC has a better chance at getting Oklahoma's bigs in foul trouble and out of the game. It also doesn't help that if the game goes down to the wire Blake Griffin could be on the bench due to his being a free throw shooting liability. For those reasons, I'm taking Southern Cal in an upset.

#13 UCLA vs. #6 Texas

At the onset of the season, things looked promising in Westwood. Star point guard Darren Collison had decided to return for his senior year. Top recruit Jrue Holiday would be filling the shoes of NBA-bound Russell Westbrook. Even senior Alfred Aboya would be coming back after being a role player, albeit a small one, on three Final Four teams. However, Collison doesn't have the supporting cast he used to have, Holiday is no Westbrook, and Aboya can't make up for the losses of Kevin Love, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and Lorenzo Mata-Real. The result? A solid top 25 team but definitely not a Final Four contender.

Texas, similarly, is dealing with the loss of DJ Augustin. The Longhorns' new best player, AJ Abrams, was forced into making the transition from sharpshooter to playmaker/scorer. So far, the transition has gone somewhat smoothly. He's averaging 17 points on 43% shooting from deep, but he's also averaging twice as many turnovers as last season. Texas, in my opinion, is no favorite to be dancing in April either.

In this particular game, Texas must focus on exploiting UCLA's weak interior. 6-7 Damion James, 6-7 Gary Johnson, and 6-10 Connor Atchley should be able to do so. For UCLA, they will be relying on Collison to make plays and find teammates for easy shots. Collison must limit his poor decisions though. Twice this year he has turned the ball over six times in one game. If he wants his team to have a chance at winning, he cannot come anywhere near six turnovers.

My opinion is simple. UCLA's perimeter defense will be able to contain Abrams but their weak frontcourt will be exposed, and the trio of James, Atchley, and Johnson will combine for a minimum of forty points. I'm taking Texas for the win.

Either way you look at it, college basketball only gets better from here. All the Duke/Presbyterian-type games are behind us and many like those mentioned in this article remain. Enjoy whatever is left of your Thanksgiving break.

College Basketball Season Preview

With the 2008-2009 college basketball season drawing ever closer, it is time to sit down, predict, and discuss the future and what it holds for fans and players alike. Will anyone stop the dominant Tar Heels? Can Stephen Curry repeat such an extraordinary late-season performance? Is the Pac-10 still the cream of the crop when it comes to conferences? No matter what the answers are to those inquiries, one thing is for certain: This year will be as thrilling and astounding as in past seasons.

Top Five Returning Players

1. Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina- No one can deny Psycho T’s work ethic and passion for the game of basketball. His decision to return to Chapel Hill catapulted North Carolina to their indisputable preseason number one spot.
Last season’s stats: 23 points per game, 10 rebounds per game, 2 steals per game

2. Stephen Curry, Davidson- Curry was everyone’s favorite player in March and hardly a soul in the country was rooting against him. He did, however, earn this type of respect and hype. Steph’s tournament run, in which he averaged 32 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals, proved that this under-recruited, under-sized shooting guard from a mid-major school has the ability to play at the next level.
Last season’s stats: 26 points per game, 5 rebounds per game, 44% three-point

3. Luke Harangody, Notre Dame- The reigning Big East Player of the Year is back for another year with hopes of reaching the second weekend in the NCAA Tournament. ‘Gody can expect to see much more attention from the defenses and very few easy baskets. He is no longer a talented unknown but rather a high-profile star and will have to get his teammates involved when he is double-teamed.
Last season’s stats: 20 points per game, 11 rebounds per game, 50% field goal

4. Darren Collison, UCLA- After starting the year with an injury, Collison recovered to lead his team to a 29-4 record and a Final Four appearance last year. He was the floor general and provided experience in the backcourt when the team needed it the most. Collison’s decision to return for his senior year could place the Bruins among the nation’s elite.
Last season’s stats: 15 points per game, 4 assists per game, 53% three-point

5. Ty Lawson, North Carolina- The junior point guard will be leading the lethal Tar Heel fastbreak this year and should be getting much consideration for the Cousy Award. His unmatched quickness and speed give him an advantage over other guards and are essential for him to be effective. The UNC fans can only hope he stays healthy this season.
Last season’s stats: 13 points per game, 5 assists per game, 2 steals per game

Blake Griffin and Scottie Reynolds were very difficult to leave off the list and will undoubtedly have an impact on college basketball this year. It was, however, unjustifiable to take any one of those chosen out of the top five. It must be remembered, though, that individuals do nothing without their team. The chemistry and cohesiveness is more important than any star player. If it were the other way around, Kansas State would have been cutting down the nets last April.

Top Five Teams

1. North Carolina Tar Heels- The odds-on favorite to win the National Championship this year is Roy Williams’s squad. They have what every team wants: good coaching, depth, star power, and chemistry. The Heels lose only minor role players from last year’s Final Four team and add a very talented recruiting class.
Last season: 36-3 record, 14-2 ACC conference record, lost in Final Four

2. Connecticut Huskies- UConn is back. Returning five players with 22+ minutes per game, they have a wealth of experience and talent, enough to win a Big East championship. Jim Calhoun’s teams have been disappointing in recent seasons and need big performances from senior point guard A.J. Price.
Last season: 24-9 record, 13-5 Big East conference record, lost in first round

3. UCLA Bruins- Losing three starters will not prevent UCLA from a fourth consecutive Final Four appearance. If Darren Collison, Josh Shipp, and Jrue Holiday can bear the scoring load, they could run the table in the Pac-10 and go far in the NCAA Tournament. Lucky for the Bruins, Ben Howland has brought in yet another stellar recruiting class to replace the losses in both the backcourt and frontcourt.
Last season: 35-4 record, 16-2 Pac-10 conference record, lost in Final Four

4. Pittsburgh Panthers- Pitt returns five players who averaged 20+ minutes per game on last year’s squad. They have a high-quality coach and a plethora of depth as a result of a notable recruiting class featuring the 6-5 true freshman Nasir Robinson.
Last season: 27-10 record, 10-8 Big East conference record, lost in second round

5. Gonzaga Bulldogs- The NCAA’s best mid-major program may be ready for its best season yet. They return six players who received a good amount of playing time last season and have brought in several talented freshmen to help both the backcourt and frontcourt.
Last season: 25-8 record, 13-1 West Coast conference record, lost in first round

Many other teams will challenge these elite teams as the season progresses, and it will be a testament to the coaching, preparation, and poise under pressure if they are able to survive. As usual, the powerhouse teams—North Carolina, UConn, and UCLA—are in the preseason talk for national contenders. There are, however, also some unusual, unconventional teams being mentioned such as Notre Dame, Purdue, and Miami.

What will separate the contenders from the pretenders, so to speak? The difficulty of their non-conference schedule, the experienced seniors who emerge as leaders, and the discipline that is applied from the start of practices are just a few of the many factors that are crucial to success late in the season. Interestingly enough, Davidson, the team that annihilated everyone’s bracket yet captivated each fan’s attention, possessed the majority of those team traits last season.

For the big conference teams, however, the competition a team faces on a nightly basis determines will prove to us whom the superior teams are. But that, of course, begs the question as to which conference is the toughest? Last season, the Pac-10 and Big East seemed to be head and shoulders above the rest. This year will tell a different story though. The Pac-10 is suffering many individual losses—Ryan Anderson, Brook Lopez, OJ Mayo, Jerryd Bayless, Kevin Love, and Russell Westbrook—and many of its teams will be experiencing a down year. Washington State and Stanford, two of last year’s Sweet 16 teams, will be fortunate to even make the tournament, let alone actually winning a game once they arrive.

The Atlantic Coast Conference, formerly regarded as the best conference in the nation, is making somewhat of a reemergence this year. North Carolina and Duke will be very good, both top ten teams undoubtedly, and should be the favorites to win the conference tournament in March. Clemson, who finished third in the conference last season, will be just as good despite the losses of Cliff Hammonds and James Mays. Miami returns a team with an abundance of experience and talent and could be the main contender to Duke and the Tar Heels among anyone else in the conference. Rounding out the top five in the league is Wake Forest. They return practically everybody and also have one of the best recruiting classes in the nation, headlined by Al- Farouq Aminu.

Whether North Carolina wins the championship or not, we shall be ready for an intriguing season yet again. Stephen Curry is back and the freshmen class is just as good as ever before. The Big East and ACC are both predicted to have 6+ teams in the NCAA Tournament, but can the other power conferences—the Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC—send several teams as well? It remains uncertain, as do many other things in college basketball. No matter what happens though, the questions and the improbability of an upset are what keep us ever vigilant.

To contact the writer, you can email him at marchmadness14@gmail.com.