Showing posts with label AJ Abrams. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AJ Abrams. Show all posts

Friday, December 19, 2008

Game-Planning 2: A Six-Hour Basketball Saturday

Tomorrow is Saturday, which, for the past three months, has meant nothing but college football. Tomorrow, however, signals the start of some great college basketball action available every Saturday from the comfort of your recliner. What to watch? When to watch? I've got you covered.

Two Great Games But You'll Only See One

#22 Michigan State vs. #5 Texas

At two o'clock on CBS, most viewers in the southwest, midwest, and far west will be watching Raymar Morgan (17 points, 6 rebounds) and Michigan State take on A.J. Abrams (21 points) and Texas. The Longhorns are obviously favored but with good reason. They have impressive wins over Villanova and UCLA; their lone loss came at the hands of a very good Notre Dame squad.

Michigan State, on the other hand, lost to Maryland and North Carolina (embarrassingly) in the comfort of their home state. The Spartans' biggest win to date has been Oklahoma State. This game, on the road in Austin, seems to be a little too much for them to handle. Their best shot at winning is getting the inconsistent Morgan involved early to get him going. Kalin Lucas also needs to have a big game to offset the Texas backcourt a little bit.

Finally, Michigan State needs to win the rebounding battle. The point guard for Texas, Gary Johnson, is even averaging six per game. Damion James needs to be boxed out perfectly every single trip down the floor because anytime he isn't, he'll get the ball.

Personally, I seriously doubt Coach Izzo's somewhat-inexperienced squad can do all that in their first tough road game of the season. Texas will win this one by about ten or twelve points.
#7 Xavier vs. #6 Duke

For everyone living on the east coast, this game will be available at two o'clock as well on CBS. This particular matchup will be played in East Rutherford, New Jersey, between what should be a mixed crowd of Dukies and Musketeer fans.

Xavier has very good size in their scorers which should cause matchup problems for Duke's defense. Even more worrisome, it could lead big scorers like Kyle Singler (17 points) and Jon Scheyer (13 points) to the bench with foul trouble.

The Musketeers do not, however, have anyone that can match the size of 7-1 Brian Zoubek, who is having a very good year with averages of seven points and five rebounds per game. Xavier will also have to deal with the stingy defense of players like Nolan Smith, Greg Paulus, and Lance Thomas.

I wouldn't expect Coach K's team to put up 80 tomorrow because defense will be the key. They do not necessarily want to push the pace too much on a team that averages 72 points per game. I would expect them to slow it down a little bit and be prepared both mentally and physically after the wake-up call sent by Michigan earlier this month.

Xavier, for a mid-major, is far from untested this year despite what some may think about their 9-0 record. They have wins over the Big East's Cincinatti, the ACC's Virginia Tech, and last year's national runner-up, #12 Memphis. For those reasons along with the size on the perimeter, I'm picking Xavier to steal one from Duke.

Two More Great Games Yet Only One for Your Viewing Pleasure

After watching one of those games, don't even change the channel because coming up next will another great set of games.

#2 UConn vs. #8 Gonzaga

This game, starting at four on CBS, is a "rebound" game for the Zags, after being upset by Arizona earlier in the week. Those in the northeast and far west should get this one. Connecticut is just looking to preserve their unblemished record and get a solid win to add to their tournament resume.

The Huskies may have wins over ranked opponents such as Miami and Wisconsin, but no team will play them tougher in their non-conference schedule than Gonzaga. The "Battle in Seattle" will be played at a neutral location before a crowd that will certainly be pro-Bulldog.

UConn boasts a team with a great starting lineup and solid depth. Seniors A.J. Price (9 points, 4 assists) and Jeff Adrien (14 points, 9 rebounds) combine with juniors Jerome Dyson (15 points) and Hasheem Thabeet (15 points, 12 rebounds, 4 blocks) to form one of the best groups of upperclassmen in the entire nation, which is nice to see amidst all the players leaving after just one year to join the NBA ranks.

Mark Few's team, however, is a mix of the young and the old. The "old" is their point guard Jeremy Pargo, wingman Matt Bouldin, do-it-all guard Micah Downs, and big man Josh Heytvelt. The "young" refers to sophomores Austin Daye and Steven Gray, who combine to average over 20 points per game for the Zags.

The home crowd along with some payback for the loss to Arizona and a good shooting day could spell trouble for UConn. I'll take Gonzaga in the upset victory.

#20 Davidson vs. #18 Purdue

For the other four o'clock CBS game, Purdue will look for a way to stop Stephen Curry with those living in the midwest and south tuning in. Much has been made about the superstar Curry, but not so much regarding his underrated supporting cast.

Andrew Lovedale (14 points, 11 rebounds) is the perfect complimentary big man to Steph, while Barr and McKillop (the son, not the coaching dad) can stroke it from deep off penetration. Junior Steve Rossiter also contributes six points and seven rebounds and is a vital role player for the Wildcats.

Purdue is a shaky team right now. They lost two straight to ranked opponents in Oklahoma and Duke and haven't played a formidable foe since then. For them to win, their defense has to step up tremendously. They gave up 87 points to Oklahoma and 76 to Duke; that cannot happen if they want to beat Davidson, a team that has scored at least 70 points in all but one game.

Coach McKillop simply needs to have a good game out of Lovedale and Curry with contributions from the rest. I can't imagine that not happening; Davidson will win, and Purdue will fall even farther in the minds of many hoops followers.

No Regional Coverage; Everyone Sees This One

At the conclusion of either the Davidson/Purdue or UConn/Gonzaga game, flip the channel to ESPN for one last game between two ranked opponents.

#11 Syracuse vs. #21 Memphis

At Memphis, the Orange will continue to play among controversy being generated by guard Eric Devendorf, who could be out of college basketball altogether by the end of January. Can they look past that and focus on the game? That remains unclear. They weren't able to do it when they were upset by Cleveland State though.

The Tigers are still rebounding from the losses of Chris Douglas-Roberts, Derrick Rose, and Joey Dorsey. They have yet to establish a go-to scorer at the end of games and struggle mightily to put points on the board at times. Due to this, Coach Cal has made some minor changes to his offense, making the scouting report on Memphis even more difficult.

Of the five games in this article, this could be the closest one that goes down to the wire. Each team has their obvious strengths and weaknesses so it will come down to who can execute. And, honestly, who can you trust more: the inexperienced Tigers or the more-experienced-yet-still-inexperienced Orange? I'll take Syracuse because it won't be about who makes the least mistakes, but more about who doesn't make the most.

That's all, folks. Have a nice day and enjoy your college basketball; it's the best basketball there is.

Game-Planning Record This Year: 2-1

To contact this writer, you can email him at marchmadness14@gmail.com.

Saturday, November 29, 2008

Game-Planning 1: Is Blake Griffin Human?

Welcome back to another year of Game-Planning from yours truly. It will be similar to last year's but with a more in-depth analysis on fewer games. This way, you'll better understand each team's strengths and weaknesses as opposed to "kinda" getting what's going on in the biggest games of the week.

The main storyline this week will certainly be the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. The obvious elite matchups (Duke/Purdue, UNC/Michigan State) are on the schedule while the not-so-obvious good, yet lesser-known, games will be there as well (Ohio State/Miami, Michigan/Maryland). So let's get to it.

#7 Duke vs. #10 Purdue

Purdue's overtime loss in the NIT Final to Oklahoma proved to be very telling for the Boilermakers. They did not get to the line nearly enough (only 5 attempts to the Sooners' 46), and will absolutely have to attack the basket against Duke and expose their lack of depth in the frontcourt. If Zoubek is out, it depends on the true freshman Plumlee to do the heavy work down low. Plumlee is averaging only two points and two rebounds in ten minutes per game. He's also shooting a sub par 1-for-4 from the line.

The Blue Devils, on the other hand, need to take advantage of their superior guards and speed. Their best plays of the season have all come in transition. It also helps that Duke is playing a lot of guys (ten averaging 10+ minutes per game) so the fresh legs may tire out Purdue in the second half.

Purdue must also protect star players E'Twaun Moore and Robbie Hummel, who fouled out at the end of regulation against Oklahoma. (One can only speculate on how overtime would have been different with him on the floor.) The duo has combined to average 31 points, 12 rebounds, and 7 assists in six games this season.

In the five games they have won, Purdue has allowed an average of only 58 points while Duke has been averaging 84 points of offense each game. To say it quite plainly, something has gotta give, and that something won't be Duke's offense. I'll take the Blue Devils in this one.

Southern Cal vs. #11 Oklahoma

The intriguing part about this game is the matchup between Blake Griffin, the best big man in America, versus Taj Gibson, possibly the most underrated big guy in the country. Gibson is averaging an impressive 17 points, 11 rebounds, and 4 blocks for Southern Cal, a team still dealing with the loss of OJ Mayo. Gibson will have to step his play up if he wants to compete with Griffin though. The Sooners' superstar is averaging a surreal 26 points and 19 rebounds per contest.

Griffin has yet to be contained on the boards, which will be a chore for USC. In fact, he has grabbed over 20 rebounds three times this year, and the BCS-conference record for an entire season is five games (Tim Duncan currently holds it). His toppling that mark is, in a word, possible.

Other than Blake, the Trojans should keep a watchful eye on his older brother, Taylor (averaging 12 points and 6 rebounds), and Cade Davis (Oklahoma's best shooter). For Coach Capel's squad, they will have to deal with not only Gibson, who may put the Griffins in foul trouble, but also Dwight Lewis (15 points per game) and freshman sensation Demar Derozan (10 points and 5 rebounds).

Both teams are frontcourt-heavy, but USC has a better chance at getting Oklahoma's bigs in foul trouble and out of the game. It also doesn't help that if the game goes down to the wire Blake Griffin could be on the bench due to his being a free throw shooting liability. For those reasons, I'm taking Southern Cal in an upset.

#13 UCLA vs. #6 Texas

At the onset of the season, things looked promising in Westwood. Star point guard Darren Collison had decided to return for his senior year. Top recruit Jrue Holiday would be filling the shoes of NBA-bound Russell Westbrook. Even senior Alfred Aboya would be coming back after being a role player, albeit a small one, on three Final Four teams. However, Collison doesn't have the supporting cast he used to have, Holiday is no Westbrook, and Aboya can't make up for the losses of Kevin Love, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and Lorenzo Mata-Real. The result? A solid top 25 team but definitely not a Final Four contender.

Texas, similarly, is dealing with the loss of DJ Augustin. The Longhorns' new best player, AJ Abrams, was forced into making the transition from sharpshooter to playmaker/scorer. So far, the transition has gone somewhat smoothly. He's averaging 17 points on 43% shooting from deep, but he's also averaging twice as many turnovers as last season. Texas, in my opinion, is no favorite to be dancing in April either.

In this particular game, Texas must focus on exploiting UCLA's weak interior. 6-7 Damion James, 6-7 Gary Johnson, and 6-10 Connor Atchley should be able to do so. For UCLA, they will be relying on Collison to make plays and find teammates for easy shots. Collison must limit his poor decisions though. Twice this year he has turned the ball over six times in one game. If he wants his team to have a chance at winning, he cannot come anywhere near six turnovers.

My opinion is simple. UCLA's perimeter defense will be able to contain Abrams but their weak frontcourt will be exposed, and the trio of James, Atchley, and Johnson will combine for a minimum of forty points. I'm taking Texas for the win.

Either way you look at it, college basketball only gets better from here. All the Duke/Presbyterian-type games are behind us and many like those mentioned in this article remain. Enjoy whatever is left of your Thanksgiving break.