Monday, January 26, 2009
3 Burning Questions & the Games to Watch
1. Who is the best team in the country right now?
Even though UConn has been playing extremely well since their loss to Georgetown (who now seems to be floundering with a loss last night to the previously 0-6 Seton Hall Pirates), I am not completely sold on them. AJ Price is far too inconsistent to be relied on every game, and Thabeet has struggled against good, versatile bigs this year, like he did against Greg Monroe in the G'Town game. If Thabeet gets in foul trouble and Price has an off game, then Jim Calhoun's team is very, very beatable.
My pick, therefore, is Duke. Coming off a 41-point thrashing of rival Maryland, the Blue Devils could not be playing any better, and it all starts with Gerald Henderson. He is having a great season on both ends of the court, being the defensive stopper and offensive force for Coach K. Another key player for Duke right now is Kyle Singler. At times, he can force shots and make bad decisions, but, for the most part, Singler is great at keeping the defense on their heels.
More important, though, is their team defense. Not only do they present fantastic on-ball defense with each and every player, but they also provide great help-side D in case their teammate gets beat. After something like this happens, their rotations happen very quickly and very precisely, which doesn't allow the offense much time to get the ball to the open man for a high-percentage shot.
North Carolina also comes into the discussion for this, as does Wake Forest and a few others, but all have shown weaknesses that can be exposed. For the Tar Heels, you need to get Ty Lawson in foul trouble, because he is the motor that makes the team go. Without him, they are a much worse team. Next, you need to attack Tyler Hansbrough and send a double-team at him whenever he puts the ball on the floor. Finally, you need to close-out on the shooters. Danny Green, Bobby Frasor, and Wayne Ellington cannot be left open, period. If you do that, keep composure, and execute on offense, North Carolina can be beat.
2. Does Kentucky have what it takes to get to the Sweet Sixteen (or possibly further) in March?
Maybe; so much of it depends on the draw (as usual). Any team with a potent perimeter scorer, Jodie Meeks, and solid interior force, Patrick Patterson, will be capable of such a run late in the season. What this team lacks in experience, they make up for in heart and desire, which is something that has definitely been missing from the Kentucky basketball program as of late.
After starting the season 0-2, the Wildcats have gone 16-2 with impressive wins over West Virginia and Tennessee, both of which were played away from home. Also, the Sweet Sixteen would not be something new for Coach Billy Gillispie. He has been-there, done-that with Acie Law IV and Texas A&M a few years ago. Finally, Kentucky has some depth, with eight guys registering at least 12 minutes per game. The depth, coaching, and play of Meeks and Patterson will be ever-vital to their postseason aspirations.
3. Blake Griffin is the odds-on favorite for the National Player of the Year Award, but who is the closest to him as of now?
Most would expect the Stephen Curry Cop-Out Answer here.But his stats aren't so great as you would expect. Yes, he's averaging 29 points per game despite having every defense ever created thrown at him. Yes, he is still making 39% of his threes, even with guys draped all over his 6-3 frame. Yes, he is dishing out 6 assists and grabbing 4 rebounds per contest. However, he is not doing what James Harden is doing.
Harden's averages might be a lot less spectacular than Curry's, but the Arizona State sophomore is not shooting nearly as much as Steph. Curry is averaging 20.5 shots per game to get his 29 points. Harden? 13 shots per game to get his 22 points per game average. Seven or eight more shots just to get seven more points?
Yet it gets better for ASU's All-America candidate. Arizona State likes to slow it down and run their halfcourt offenses. Very rarely do they get into high-scoring track meets with opponents. The result is simple. Harden's scoring is 31% of his entire team's points. Add his 4 assists per game, and the 6-5 Harden is responsible for 42% of Arizona State's scoring. Talk about carrying your team.
Finally, he shoots 54% from the field and 40% from deep. In other words, he is efficient in putting up points. James Harden is, in my opinion, one of the most over-looked superstars in college basketball. He does it all for his team and then some.
Games to Watch
Wednesday
Villanova vs. Pittsburgh: Two Big East foes face off at 7 o'clock on ESPNU (for those of you who actually get that network). It will be interesting to see the point guard matchup of the two teams: Levance Fields against Scottie Reynolds.
Duke vs. Wake Forest: Arguably the two best teams in the ACC will be on display at 7 o'clock on ESPN. Coach K may be forced to use 7-footer Brian Zoubek more than he has recently against the Demon Deacons, who have a very good frontcourt led by the freshman Aminu.
Thursday
Saint Mary's vs. Gonzaga: Patty Mills against Jeremy Pargo. The up-and-coming Gaels against the usually-dominant Bulldogs. This game is a must-see event, even for those who don't follow mid-major basketball. Hope you're a night owl though: 11 o'clock start on ESPN2.
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Saturday, December 20, 2008
6 Hours, 4 Wrong Predictions, and 1 Overtime Later
At ten till two, I sat down on my couch, preparing for the six hours of basketball that would follow. Yesterday, I gave you my predictions for whom would win the five best games of the day. At ten till two, I was very confident with those very predictions.Friday, December 19, 2008
Game-Planning 2: A Six-Hour Basketball Saturday
Saturday, November 29, 2008
Game-Planning 1: Is Blake Griffin Human?
The main storyline this week will certainly be the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. The obvious elite matchups (Duke/Purdue, UNC/Michigan State) are on the schedule while the not-so-obvious good, yet lesser-known, games will be there as well (Ohio State/Miami, Michigan/Maryland). So let's get to it.
#7 Duke vs. #10 Purdue
Purdue's overtime loss in the NIT Final to Oklahoma proved to be very telling for the Boilermakers. They did not get to the line nearly enough (only 5 attempts to the Sooners' 46), and will absolutely have to attack the basket against Duke and expose their lack of depth in the frontcourt. If Zoubek is out, it depends on the true freshman Plumlee to do the heavy work down low. Plumlee is averaging only two points and two rebounds in ten minutes per game. He's also shooting a sub par 1-for-4 from the line.
The Blue Devils, on the other hand, need to take advantage of their superior guards and speed. Their best plays of the season have all come in transition. It also helps that Duke is playing a lot of guys (ten averaging 10+ minutes per game) so the fresh legs may tire out Purdue in the second half.
Purdue must also protect star players E'Twaun Moore and Robbie Hummel, who fouled out at the end of regulation against Oklahoma. (One can only speculate on how overtime would have been different with him on the floor.) The duo has combined to average 31 points, 12 rebounds, and 7 assists in six games this season.
In the five games they have won, Purdue has allowed an average of only 58 points while Duke has been averaging 84 points of offense each game. To say it quite plainly, something has gotta give, and that something won't be Duke's offense. I'll take the Blue Devils in this one.
Southern Cal vs. #11 Oklahoma
The intriguing part about this game is the matchup between Blake Griffin, the best big man in America, versus Taj Gibson, possibly the most underrated big guy in the country. Gibson is averaging an impressive 17 points, 11 rebounds, and 4 blocks for Southern Cal, a team still dealing with the loss of OJ Mayo. Gibson will have to step his play up if he wants to compete with Griffin though. The Sooners' superstar is averaging a surreal 26 points and 19 rebounds per contest.
Griffin has yet to be contained on the boards, which will be a chore for USC. In fact, he has grabbed over 20 rebounds three times this year, and the BCS-conference record for an entire season is five games (Tim Duncan currently holds it). His toppling that mark is, in a word, possible.
Other than Blake, the Trojans should keep a watchful eye on his older brother, Taylor (averaging 12 points and 6 rebounds), and Cade Davis (Oklahoma's best shooter). For Coach Capel's squad, they will have to deal with not only Gibson, who may put the Griffins in foul trouble, but also Dwight Lewis (15 points per game) and freshman sensation Demar Derozan (10 points and 5 rebounds).
Both teams are frontcourt-heavy, but USC has a better chance at getting Oklahoma's bigs in foul trouble and out of the game. It also doesn't help that if the game goes down to the wire Blake Griffin could be on the bench due to his being a free throw shooting liability. For those reasons, I'm taking Southern Cal in an upset.
#13 UCLA vs. #6 Texas
At the onset of the season, things looked promising in Westwood. Star point guard Darren Collison had decided to return for his senior year. Top recruit Jrue Holiday would be filling the shoes of NBA-bound Russell Westbrook. Even senior Alfred Aboya would be coming back after being a role player, albeit a small one, on three Final Four teams. However, Collison doesn't have the supporting cast he used to have, Holiday is no Westbrook, and Aboya can't make up for the losses of Kevin Love, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and Lorenzo Mata-Real. The result? A solid top 25 team but definitely not a Final Four contender.
Texas, similarly, is dealing with the loss of DJ Augustin. The Longhorns' new best player, AJ Abrams, was forced into making the transition from sharpshooter to playmaker/scorer. So far, the transition has gone somewhat smoothly. He's averaging 17 points on 43% shooting from deep, but he's also averaging twice as many turnovers as last season. Texas, in my opinion, is no favorite to be dancing in April either.
In this particular game, Texas must focus on exploiting UCLA's weak interior. 6-7 Damion James, 6-7 Gary Johnson, and 6-10 Connor Atchley should be able to do so. For UCLA, they will be relying on Collison to make plays and find teammates for easy shots. Collison must limit his poor decisions though. Twice this year he has turned the ball over six times in one game. If he wants his team to have a chance at winning, he cannot come anywhere near six turnovers.
My opinion is simple. UCLA's perimeter defense will be able to contain Abrams but their weak frontcourt will be exposed, and the trio of James, Atchley, and Johnson will combine for a minimum of forty points. I'm taking Texas for the win.
Either way you look at it, college basketball only gets better from here. All the Duke/Presbyterian-type games are behind us and many like those mentioned in this article remain. Enjoy whatever is left of your Thanksgiving break.